The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Commanders vs Colts (-3.5) in London
The Indianapolis Colts move to 2-2 as the Washington Commanders slide to 1-3. The commanders were up 6-0 when Marcus Mariota left to injury (likely MCL), with seventh-round rookie Athan Kaliakmanis taking over. Kaliakmanis was giving strong Taylor Heinicke vibes, making some plays, but ultimately too many errors to get the win.
The basic stats looked in the Commanders’ favor, averaging 5.2 yards per play to the Colts at just 3.9, but they couldn’t keep drives alive, going 2-for-15 on third downs (-9.3 EPA) and 1-for-4 on fourth downs (-5.1). Late-down inefficiencies, in addition to committing nine more penalties for net 79 more yards lost, were the differences in the game.
The Colts certainly weren’t good offensively either, with turnovers crushing their dropback efficiency (7th percentile, -0.37 per), but salvaged a modicum of production with the ground game. Jonathan Taylor gained +3.6 EPA on 20 carries (95 yards and two scores), Daniel Jones contributed +2.7 EPA, and Seth McGowan at +1.6 EPA, mostly due to a 4th & 1 conversion (+2.3). The Commanders main rushing contribution came from Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who lost 3.7 expected points on nine carries for 15 yards.
The only times Jones shows up on the top-10 impactful plays are in the negative: a 5.3 expected points loss on a strip-sack fumble, and another 3.2 lost with an interception. Jones did limit losses by only taking one other sack, and his rushing value mitigated an otherwise awful game by the advanced stats.
Kaliakmanis had some flashes, but the advanced stats point to a fairly poor effort. He completed fewer than 50% of his passes (15/33, -11.8% CPOE) and threw a pick.
The Colts have a big game against the Steelers next week, currently a game behind the Jaguars, who have their annual London game against the Eagles.
