The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Vikings (-10) vs Dolphins
The Minnesota Vikings move to 4-0, though their offense still looks out of sorts. But their defense continues to save the day, this week holding the hapless Miami Dolphins offense to a 34% success rate and -0.24 EPA per play. The Vikings offense wasn’t much better (38% and -0.06), but kept their EPA efficiency roughly flat by avoiding turnovers and converting nine late downs (eight thirds, once on fourth).
The Vikings also enjoyed a special teams advantage, with kicker Will Reichard making all five field goal attempts (+4.0 EPA) and two strong returns of the opening kickoff for 47 yards (+1.3 EPA) and a punt for 36 yards (+2.2 EPA).
The Dolphins offense couldn’t sustain drives, going 2-for-9 on third downs, only running 37 plays to the Vikings’ 72, totaling 198 yards to 336 for their opponents. They only had nine offensive drives, and 53 of their yards (27%) came on one Ollie Gordon run (+4.7 EPA). Gordon was the value star for the Dolphins offense, totaling +6.6 EPA on designed runs (9-100-1).
Six of the top-10 impact plays were negative, with Kyler Murray to T.J. Hockenson hookups provided sparks, as the tight end caught all 13 of his targets, finishing with 119 yards (+11.2 EPA). Hockenson could have added a couple more yards and a touchdown, but chose to slide down right outside the end zone and kill the clock at the end of the game.
It’s a bit worrying that Murray took four sacks, after the Dolphins had registered zero takedowns of the quarterback their first three games. The Vikings remain the NFC North favorites in a tight race, right now at 37% in prediction markets.
The negative expected points from Murray’s sacks were more than Malik Willis lost with his strip-sack fumble (-4.7 EPA) and two sacks (-2.6). Willis was a bit unlucky to make a crazy escape from the pocket and find Chris Bell for what looked like a 68-yard touchdown, but the receiver committed an illegal touching penalty by stepping out of bounds briefly before making the catch.
