Week 4 SNF Ravens-Bills: Advanced Review

The Ravens crush the Bills with ease, showing us how fragile power rankings are this season, especially at the top

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

BAL-BUF

The adjusted scores saw the Ravens still as the clear winners, though a bit more narrow than the 25-point actual differential. The Ravens enjoyed late-down, special teams and penalty advantages in the game, meaning higher variance elements explained some of the score differential and can be discounted.