Week 4 Monday Night Dolphins-Jets & Broncos-Bengals: Advanced Reviews

The Dolphins get their first W of the year, while losing Tyreek Hill. While the Broncos walk over the moribund Bengals

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

MIA (-2.5) vs NYJ

This is likely one of the biggest swings in adjusted versus actual scores we’ll see this year. A lot of that can be explained by the relatively good luck the Miami Dolphins had (or poor luck for the New York Jets) in the turnover department. There were five fumbles in the game (three for the Jets and two for the Dolphins), and the Dolphins recovered all five of them. In terms of value, the Dolphins gained 13.7 expected points on those three recoveries of Jets fumbles.

One of the Jets fumbles lost came on a kick return, part of a huge 10.9 expected points advantage the Dolphins had over the Jets in special teams. Four penalties in the game caused a net swing of over one expected point, and all of them went against the Jets: two unnecessary roughness call, an offensive pass interference and key offensive holding.