Week 4 MNF Giants-Seahawks: Advanced Review

Implosion for the Giants with the Seahawks defense the stars of the evening

Rookie Devon Witherspoon and the Seahawks defense were the stars on Monday night.

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

NYG vs SEA

The adjusted scores might be giving the Giants too much credit for poor variance in the number and severity of their turnovers, but the Seahawks offense wasn’t great either. You can make excuses for the Seahawk’s 38% success rate and 19th percentile offensive efficiency with the fact that they didn’t need to do anything on offense, but you’d like to see something more to mentally register this as a complete win.