Week 4 Dublin & Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Steelers-Vikings, Falcons-Commanders, Bills-Saints, Lions-Browns, Texans-Titans, Patriots-Panthers, Giants-Chargers & Bucaneers-Eagles

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

DUBLIN: PIT vs MIN (-2.5)

For the first time this season, the Pittsburgh Steelers got the win in a game that the adjusted scores saw them as even better than the final scores. The Steelers hit an awesome 57.7% offensive success rate to the Minnesota Vikings at only 43.6%, plus they won the turnover and late-down advantages in EPA value.

The Steelers offense was a balanced success, hitting the 72nd percentile in EPA efficiency dropping back to pass, and the 90th percentile on designed runs. Much of the Steelers dropback EPA came on one play: an 80-yard catch-and-run touchdown by DK Metcalf, swing +6.4 EPA in their favor and 16.1% in win probability. Outside of that one pass, the Steelers actually lost 0.4 expected points on dropbacks, but their success rate overall was a solid 56%.

Kenneth Gainwell was highly productive as a rusher, gaining 99 yards and two touchdowns on 19 totes (+3.4 EPA), despite losing 2.5 expected points on a fourth down failure on 4th & Goal from the Vikings 3 yard-line.

The Vikings offense mostly offset its turnover losses (two Carson Wentz INTs, -7.3 EPA) with big passing plays, including an 81-yard Jordan Addison reception late in the fourth quarter (+5.6 EPA). The Vikings ended with slightly above average EPA per play, but didn’t produce consistent gains.

Carson Wentz was particularly mistake-prone in this contest, losing 8.7 expected points to sacks (6 for 48 yards) in addition to the two picks. Wentz did make gains to mitigate losses, and was forced into 57 dropbacks while playing from behind. Wentz has always been a gunslinger, and he produced the good and bad of that profile in Dublin.

The Steelers only dropped back 25 times while playing with a lead (49% of plays), and Rodgers mostly guided the offense to victory, rather than needing to make the spectacular happen. An overwhelming proportion of Rodgers’ EPA came from receiver gains after the catch.

Much like midway through last season, I’ll likely have some Steelers fan yelling at me when my power rankings drop next Tuesday. The Steelers were 21st in my pre-Week 4 rankings, and I don’t see them jumping much above league average after this week.

ATL (-2.5) vs WAS