The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
49ers (-7.5) vs Cardinals
This game got uncomfortably close near the end, with the heavily favored San Francisco 49ers needing to recover a last-ditch onside kick from the Arizona Cardinals to seal the win. It was a high-powered offense game from both squads, each posting a better than 50% success rate, strong EPA efficiencies and zero turnovers. The 49ers did fumble away the ball on a special teams punt return, and missed two extra points, keeping the game within reach.
The 49ers separated through per-play efficiency, with their 99th EPA percentile, averaging 8.7 yards per play to the Cardinals at 75th percentile and 4.5, respectively. The Cardinals juiced their EPA number via conversions, including two 4th & 2’s that totaled +3.9 EPA.
