Week 3 Sunday Late Window: Advanced Reviews

Seahawks ground game rolling, Cowboys defense vulnerable, and more interesting things happening off the field in KC

More interesting things were happening off the field in the late window

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

SEA vs CAR

The biggest differences in the game were the teams’ respective abilities to convert third downs, with the Seahawks going 10-for-20 and the Panthers 3-for-12. The Seahawks offense was also generally more successful, especially running the ball (rate of 50% to 23.1%). Miles Sanders had 24 yards on nine carries, while Kennth Walker and Zach Charbonnet combined for 153 yards on 27 carries.

Andy Dalton almost matched Geno Smith’s efficiency, avoiding turnovers and adding decent value on huge volume. There doesn’t appear to be a reason to rush back rookie Bryce Young, though the results might just be about how bad the Seahawks pass defense has become. They made Adam Thielen look like Justin Jefferson (14 targets, 11 receptions, 143 yards and a touchdown).

ARI vs DAL