Week 3 Sunday Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Browns-Giants, Colts-Bears, Vikings-Texans, Saints-Eagles, Steelers-Chargers, Bucs-Broncos and Titans-Packers

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

CLE-NYG

Things just keep getting worse in Cleveland, with a pathetic offensive performance against one of the worst teams in the NFL, and the Browns’ top-notch defense made the Giants offense look functional for the first time this season.

The Browns lost despite having an 11.4 EPA advantage in special teams and penalties, two of the least predictive aspects of play. Plays included a 5.5 EPA fumble recovery on the opening kickoff, which led to a quick Browns touchdown, their only score until the fourth quarter.

The Browns offense was generally horrific, hitting the 5th percentage in overall EPA efficiency. The Giants were near the 60th percentile, driven up success dropping back to pass.

Seven of the top-10 most impactful plays were negatives, including four lost fumbles, two missed field goals and a 4th & 1 sack.

We’re probably way past the point of hoping for a turnaround in Deshaun Watson’s game that will bring him close to his 2020 form. Watson barely produced any value when he wasn’t getting sacked or losing fumbles (8 sacks, two lost fumbles), and all those negatives totalled more than 20 expected points lost.

Daniel Jones was productive, building on his positive performance a week ago against the Commanders. After taking five sacks and throwing two interceptions against the Vikings Week 1, Jones hasn’t turned the ball over, and only has one sack in the next two games. Rookie Malik Nabers continues to be Jones’ favorite receiver, racking up another +6.0 EPA generated on 13 targets.

IND-CHI

Going into the season, this matchup would have looked like a potential showcase for two young quarterbacks, but instead we got more evidence that neither at this point is ready to shine in the NFL. The adjusted scores had the Bears as a slightly better team, despite trailing for most of three quarters. The model simply doesn’t respect the Colts offense with paltry passing reliance (-16.3% dropback rate versus expected) and efficiency (4th percentile). They were able to run the ball relatively well, but even that wasn’t a value-add by EPA (-0.04 per designed run).