Week 3 Sunday Early Window: Advanced Reviews

The Dolphins drop 70 burger (!!!), the end should be near for Zach Wilson and Desmond Ridder, Deshaun Watson's best game with the Browns

De’Von Achane a big part of one of the greatest offensive performances in NFL history

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

CLE vs TEN

Browns put a clean whooping on the Titans at home, with their best offensive efficiency in the Deshaun Watson era, which is kinda sad to still not make the 80th percentile overall. The Browns struggled running the ball, so the effect of Nick Chubb’s absence was felt. But as predicted in this week’s commentary, calls to declare the Browns offense dead without him were way off. The enhanced general efficiency from passing and naturally higher passing volume throughout the NFL combine to make it more likely to have a good offense with poor rushing than the poor passing.

The Browns passed at 4.4% over expectation, the highest number in the past two seasons, and likely the best formula for them to win going forward. What’s the point of trading away a bunch of draft picks (and a fair share of your conscience) and paying Watson one of the highest salaries in the league if you’re not going to use him. It’s way too early to declare Watson’s struggles over, but we knew these types of performances were well within his range of outcomes.

The real story of the season continues to be the Browns defense, with the unit holding the Titans offensive to 3rd percentile efficiency. The Titans are actually the only one of three Browns offenses faced to crack 30% success rate. After a shockingly poor game from the Cowboys’ defense in the late window, the Browns have most efficient defense this season.

Watson’s headline efficiency is even better than the team-level dropback number, as the biggest negative play, an Elijah Moore fumble after the catch (-5.7 EPA), was excluded from his numbers. Watson was accurate with a completion percentage nearly 20% over expectation, and had few mistakes (3 sacks).

I’m not sure how much to blame Ryan Tannehill for the Titans’ inability to move the ball against one of the best defenses, but it might not matter when it comes to his long-term job security. If the 1-2 Titans lose next week to the Bengals, or two of three with the Colts and Ravens thereafter, I can see the calls for a look at current emergency quarterback rookie Will Levis. I don’t think there’s a real chance Tannehill is traded, but that stop the idea of him to the Jets out of various TV segments.

DET vs ATL