Week 3 SNF Raiders-Steelers: Advanced Review

The Raiders were probably the better team, but end-game decisions hurt them, though some not as much as you might think.

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

LV vs PIT

I was a bit surprised to see the Raiders with such a healthy adjusted score differential, but a 10-plus percent lead in offensive success rate will do that. Plus, the Raiders generated that success rate while passing the ball at a higher than expected rate, normally a formula for better overall efficiency than the 45th percentile.