Week 3 MNF Eagles-Bucs & Bengals-Rams: Advanced Reviews

Eagles handle business, and the Bengals look clunky avoiding 0-3 and staying in the hunt

Eagles milked the sneak and push for all it was worth in beating the Bucs

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

TB vs PHI

There was a lot of garbage time in this game, with the Bucs win probability falling under 5% with almost 10 minutes left in the third quarter. They got a touchdown and 2-pointer in the fourth quarter, but the difference in quality was even bigger than the score. The Eagles outgained the Bucs 472 yards to 174, converted 27 first downs to 12, and averaged 6.1 yards per play to 4.0.