Week 3 Late Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Chargers-Broncos, Seahawks-Saints, Bears-Cowboys & 49ers-Cardinals

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

LAC (-2.5) vs DEN

The final score differential ended up more narrow than the adjusted scores would have thought, as the Los Angeles Chargers had significantly better offensive success rate and EPA efficiency than the Denver Broncos. The game stayed close, in part, due to a kickoff fumble recovered by the Broncos (+6 EPA). The Broncos were also more successful on late downs, going 2-for-2 on fourth down (+10.3 EPA), including a 52-yard touchdown reception with less than a minute left in the first half.

Once again, the Chargers rode Justin Herbert to victory, though their dropback passing game wasn’t particularly efficient. Herbert dropped back 58 times in this game.