Week 3 Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Panthers-Falcons, Browns-Packers, Jaguars-Texans, Vikings-Bengals, Patriots-Steelers, Eagles-Rams, Bucs-Jets, Titans-Colts & Commanders-Raiders

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

CAR vs ATL (-5.5)

Congratulations if you started the Carolina Panthers defense in your fantasy leagues this week (you didn’t, and no one else did either). The Atlanta Falcons were heavy favorites on the road, reflecting a dominating defense the first two weeks of the season, a top-notch rushing attack and a second-year quarterback who looked to be coming into his own.

Only the Falcons’ rushing offense showed up this week, while their defense was middling and the passing offense gave them no shot to win. Neither team was effective converting third downs (Panthers: 3-11, Falcons: 5-13), but the Panthers converted both on their fourth down tries (+6.6 EPA) while the Falcons were 0-for-3 (-10.8 EPA). For what it’s worth, the adjusted scores saw this as a much closer contest than the actual scores, with nearly all the high-leverage plays going against the Falcons.

The Falcons only hit the 3rd percentile in dropback efficiency, with poor play-by-play success rate (31.1%) exacerbated by hugely negative errors, including two picks (total -12.1 EPA), one taken back for a Panthers touchdown. The early returns on the Falcons releasing Younghoe Koo for Parker Romo looked good last week (5-for-5), but he missed from 49 and 55 yards, costing the Falcons 7.7 expected points when factoring in lost scoring and giving the Panthers great field positions.

There’s little positive to take away from this performance for Michael Penix by the numbers. He made huge mistakes, was highly inaccurate and didn’t gain positive value even when his passes weren’t intercepted. I guess the fact he didn’t take a sack is something to hold onto for Falcons fans.

I haven’t talked much about the Panthers offense in this game because they were merely mediocre, and that includes the numbers for Bryce Young. By avoiding negatives (no turnovers and only one sack), Young was able to post slightly positive EPA, without being efficient passing the ball (121 passing yards at 5.0 YPA).

CLE vs GB (-8.5)