Week 2 TNF Dolphins-Bills: Advanced Review
Week 2 TNF Dolphins-Bills: Advanced Review
A blowout win for the Bills, with the biggest implications around the heath of Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
MIA-BUF
Starting with the numbers of the game, the adjusted scores have the game as substantially closer than the final score, mostly due to truly enormous advantages the Bills had over the Dolphins in turnovers and late-down (3rd/4th) efficiency. Those plays, or course, are part of the game and can’t be fully discounted. But they typically have higher EPA variance and provide less signal on a play-by-play basis than something like overall success rate, which was close-ish in this game (49% to 42%).
The adjusted scores model has a fairly high bar to excluding data in “garbage time”, but almost the entire fourth quarter of this game met the threshold: 99% or better win probability in the fourth quarter. I use win probability derived from betting markets, which is typically a bit more conservative than public win probability models. Either way, this game was over for all practical purposes in the early 4th.
The numbers below for offensive efficiency are for the entire game, and the Bills offense cooled off considerably in the fourth quarter (-0.40 EPA per play). Whereas the Dolphins offense didn’t get any better with Skylar Thompson at the helm (-0.31).
What drove the Bills success through the first three quarters wasn’t overall success rate (52%) as much as making huge gains on a handful of plays, including James Cook’s 49-yard touchdown (+4.9 EPA), a 33-yard, 3rd & 12 conversion to Ty Johnson (+4.4) and a 4th & 3 conversion and touchdown to Cook (+4.4 EPA). When you mix a strong success rate with a handful of explosive plays, the results are deadly for the opponent.
The Dolphins offense was also hovering above a 50% success rate in the first half and only punted once. But three drives ended in turnovers: two interceptions and one 4th & 2 failure at midfield (total -11.2 EPA). The Dolphins forced a punt to begin the fourth quarter and were sitting at a respectable 15% win probability before Tagovailoa threw his third interception, this one a pick-6 that was the most impactful play of the game at -7.2 EPA. Another failed 4th down conversion on the next drive for the Dolphins sealed the deal, right after Thompson stepped in for the injured Tagovailoa.
Josh Allen wasn’t the focus of the game, but his efficiency was still outstanding. He only had 20 dropbacks the entire game, the second lowest number for Allen since the beginning of 2020. The Bills won’t be able to replace Stefon Diggs with a one-for-one alpha receiver, but they’ve done an excellent job the first two weeks being efficient while passing at a lower volume, and getting extreme efficiency out of Khalil Shakir, in particular (+11.1 EPA on only eight total targets this season).
Tagovailoa was able to move the ball outside of the turnovers and sacks, with -18.5 EPA in mistakes overwhelming his +11.5 EPA on other throws and scrambles.
The big story coming out of the game is going to be the health and future status of Tua Tagovailoa, after suffering his third documented concussion in the last two years. There’s definitely a bias in speculating towards worst-case scenarios in the media, like Tagovailoa needing to retire or miss the rest of the season. Both of those outcomes could be the most prudent measure, yet we’ve seen many players continue on in their careers after a series of concussions. It always feels like certain players are inherently more susceptible to them after suffering one or two in the past, but their occurrences have an element of randomness.
Tagovailoa is 26 years old and just signed a massive extension to be the Dolphins franchise quarterback for the next several years. It’s not easy for any player in their prime to give up what they’ve worked for their whole lives. For every example of players who stepped away from the game early, there are others who continued on. Brandin Cooks suffered five documented-or-likely concussions from 2015-2019, but has been clear since. How long to sit out and whether to return to the game is a decision for Tagovailoa, his family and his doctors. I wouldn’t blame him for either choice, though I see suiting up again as more likely.
I don’t know much about Thompson’s profile as a prospect and where he was stronger, but I figure Tannehill’s comfort with an under-center, play action heavy offense can shine through with McDaniel calling plays since he obviously draws a heavy influence from Shanahan. They’d maybe have to cool off with some of the misdirection motion and formation variability in the short term in that situation but I don’t see why it’s not worth a shot
Taking a conservative approach and assuming an extended absence (at minimum) for Tua, do you have any hope at all for Skylar Thompson? Going to assume Tannehill is the best play moving forward for a team that has (or, maybe had) playoff aspirations .