Week 3 Thursday Night Bills-Dolphins: Advanced Review
The Bills eventually close out the game, with their dominant offense making the difference
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
BUF (-12.5) vs MIA
The Buffalo Bills were the clear better team by the advanced metrics, leading the Miami Dolphins in offensive success rate 55% to 40% and EPA efficiency in the 91st percentile (+0.26) to the 54th (+0.03). However, they didn’t cover the extremely healthy 12.5-point betting spread, and the game was tied early into the fourth quarter.
That said, this was a contest where the in-game point differential didn’t reflect modeled win probability, as the Bills were seen as heavy favorites the entire contest, never without either the lead or the ball from the second quarter on.
The Dolphins found some success rushing the ball, hitting the 75th percentile EPA efficiency (23 carries, 123 yards and a touchdown on designed runs), but the Bills were even more efficient. Despite trailing for most of the game, the Dolphins leaned into the run at +10% rate versus expectation (based on score differential and other contextual factors).
The biggest play of the game in win-probability and EPA swings was an awful looking Tua Tagovailoa interception killing a potential game-tying drive with a little over three minutes remaining. A couple big special teams plays basically ended up cancelling each other out, though viewers will focus significantly more on the fourth-quarter roughing the kicker penalty that extended the Bills go-ahead touchdown drive.
Ended up with flat EPA efficiency for Tua Tagovailoa, crushed by his interception (-5.8 EPA). Tua did avoid sacks and generated decent passing EPA, though most came via receiver yards-after-catch.
Another elite performance by the numbers for Josh Allen, though his adjusted stats will ding him (slightly) for a fumbled exchange that he recovered. Allen avoided interceptions and was only sacked twice for 10 yards lost. Even more than Tagovailoa, Allen relied on YAC gains to accumulate passing value.
