Week 2 Sunday Late Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Cardinals-Rams, Chiefs-Bengals and Broncos-Steelers

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ARI-LA

The Cardinals get an outstanding win against the Rams, that looks strong, but not insanely strong, by the fundamentals. The Rams had a decent success rate offensively, but they couldn’t keep pace with a Cardinals offense that only punted twice the entire game. The Cardinals had a 21.7 EPA advantage over the Rams on third and fourth downs, mostly due to multiple fourth-down failures and going 2-for-11 on third downs by the Rams, but also converting their own third downs at a rate 20% over expectation.

The Cardinals nearly hit the 100th percentile for dropback efficiency, ranking 4th among nearly 1,200 offensive performances since the beginning of 2022. The Rams severely underpeformed their success rate, hitting the 8th percentile in dropback efficiency, and 40th percentile on designed runs.

The two highest impact plays in EPA had no effect on win probability, with both teams fumbling in the fourth quarter after the game was out of reach. The biggest win probability move came when the Rams lost 7.1% on a failed fourth down try on the first drive of the game (4th & 2, 13:37 left in the first quarter).

Marvin Harrison Jr.’s breakout was a big story of the game, gaining 130 yards and two touchdowns on only four receptions. His per-target efficiency was a bit weaker, failing to bring in any of his four other targets.

Matthew Stafford had a second-or-third string offensive line protecting him, which wouldn’t have changed the game result with an upgrade, but probably hurt his individual efficiency.

Kyler Murray had his best game as a pro. He combined strong efficiency, accuracy (+17.5% CPOE) and added 3.9 expected points on four scrambles and one designed run. Murray also displayed his movement prowess buying time in the pocket to eventually find receivers down the field. Murray’s total of +23.9 EPA set a new career high, and it only took 27 dropbacks and one designed run to get there.

KC-CIN

The NFL most blessed team pulls off another win as the adjusted scores point to there opponent as the better team. The Bengals had a better success rate offensively, and they pressed their passing efficiency advantage by passing at a rate 10.8% over expectation.

The Chiefs only hit the 20th percentile in EPA efficiency on dropbacks, but the 80th percentile for designed runs. The Bengals were consistently good, hitting above the 50th percentile in both phases.