Week 2 Sunday Late Window: Advanced Game Reviews

The Giants and Commanders make big comebacks, the unsurprising happens in Dallas and LA

Daniel Jones may have saved the Giants season with a comeback in Arizona

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find the Week 2 Early Window Advanced Reviews Here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ARI vs NYG

“Daniel Jones outduels Josh Dobbs” probably wasn’t the most expected headline for this matchup, but it might be the most accurate. Even with the W, Brian Daboll and the Giants brass can’t be too happy to give up 28 points and 80th percentile offensive efficiency to Dobbs and the Cardinals.

It’s been rocky, but the Cards have secured the first two losses on the way to the No. 1 pick, but they look to have competition this season.

Jones turned back to his most effective attribute: rushing value. He had four designed runs (+4.4 EPA) and five scrambles (+3.3 EPA), and a six-yard touchdown called back by penalty. Not that Jones wasn’t efficient through the air. The biggest negative play of the game was a Jones interception that went through the hands of Saquon Barkley (-6.6 EPA). Rookie Jalin Hyatt was only targeted twice, but turned that into 89 yards (+5.8 EPA), and could grow into a real receiving weapon for the Giants.

The Giants defense is going to have to take a long look in the mirror after Dobbs dropped back to pass 35 times and didn’t register a turnover or sack. Dobbs was effective running (3.4 EPA on three designed runs) and James Conner rushed for 106 yards on 23 carries.

LA vs SF

Outside of the peculiarity of a last-second Rams field goal down 10 points (congrats, Rams bettors), the adjusted score is also a bit head-scratching at only a single point differential. It can mostly be explained by roughly equal success rates, and the Rams shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers. The 49ers also fumbled twice (zero for the Rams), but were somewhat lucky to recover both.