Week 2 Sunday Early Window, Part Two: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Jaguars-Browns, Vikings-49ers, Patriots-Seahawks, Titans-Jets and Commanders-Giants

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

JAX-CLE

The adjusted scores think the Browns were slightly lucky to get the win, relying on late-down-conversion advantage, and 6.2 net EPA on special teams and penalties. The Browns gained 6.6 EPA converting all three of their fourth down chances, plus the Jaguars missed 43-yard field goal cost them 3.4 expected points.

Overall, the Browns posted slightly below average EPA efficiency (46th percentile) on a decently below average success rate (39%). The Jaguars were better on a play-by-play basis, but they didn’t keep enough drives going, converting 3-of-9 third downs.

The biggest offensive impact play for the Browns was a roughing the passer call that triggered a 3rd & 14 conversion, not exactly the product of great offense. The Browns gained 4.6 yards per play to the Jaguars’ 5.9.

Both quarterbacks had roughly flat EPA, with Trevor Lawrence pushing the ball down the field (12.1-yard aDOT), but completing passes 9% under expectation. Watson was more of the game-manager, not exactly the role they hoped for when the Browns signed him to one of the biggest contracts in the NFL.

MIN-SF

You might have the impression that Sam Darnold outplayed Brock Purdy with his 97-yard touchdown to Justin Jefferson on-loop in highlight shows. However, their numbers were fairly similar overall, with Darnold producing -6.5 EPA on his other 29 dropbacks. The 49ers offense finished with a better success rate, but couldn’t make the deciding plays on third (2-of-10) or fourth downs (1-of-3).