The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
* Buccaneers-Browns will be added to the late window after rain delay
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Falcons vs Panthers (-2.5)
I won’t declare “season over” for the Atlanta Falcons already, but the sun is close to setting at 0-2 with a dysfunctional offense, multiple quarterback injuries and facing the Packers, Saints, Ravens, Bears, 49ers, Bucs, Bengals and Chiefs over the next eight games.
The Carolina Panthers, on the other hand, should be feeling good after bouncing back from their defensive implosion in Week 1. The Panthers sit atop the competition-light NFC South with the Cleveland Browns next on the schedule.
Not that a win against the Falcons says a whole lot about the strength of the Panthers. I think we know that neither Cooper Rush nor Jack Strand are going to win a lot of games this year. The Falcons turned the ball over five times to zero for the Panthers, translating to a +28.2 EPA advantage for the winners. The Panthers offense was merely fine by the numbers, with a 38.6% success rate (before garbage time) that is a little worse than the median NFL offense.
It’s wasn’t Bryce Young holding down the Panthers’ offensive efficiency, as he finished with +10.9 total EPA and a completion percentage over expectation of +11.6%.
