Week 2 SNF Texans-Bears: Advanced Review

A matchup of two young stud quarterbacks turned into a defensive grind, though the Texans clearly the better team

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

HOU-CHI

Neither team moved the ball well by success rate, but the Texans averaged two more yards per play (5.0 to 3.0) and held the Bears offense nearly completely in check. The Adjusted scores are probably overvaluing success rate, a metric that sees the Bears as slightly equal, but doesn’t account for a total lack of upside in their offense, plus turnovers that were more representative of poor play.

The Texans were perfectly fine passing the ball (45th percentile EPA efficiency) against one of the NFL best pass defenses (Bears were No. 1 in dropback EPA against from Week 10 on last year). The biggest impact play of the game in terms of EPA was the Cam Akers fumble on the Bears 4 yard-line. The rest of the top-5 biggest plays wentin the Texans favor, including a 28-yard Nico Collins touchdown catch, and mistakes for the Bears’ Caleb Williams.