Week 2 Late Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Cardinals-Panthers, Colts-Broncos & Chiefs-Eagles

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ARI (-7) vs CAR

This one ended up being tight, with a controversial roughing the passer call setting up the Carolina Panthers at the Arizona Cardinals 33 yard-line with a little under a minute remaining. The Panthers couldn’t get the needed touchdown, and the adjusted scores saw both teams as fortunate to get as many points as they did in this contest.

The Panthers and Cardinals finished with offensive success rates a little over 40%, well below average figures in the NFL. But their EPA efficiencies were much better on the back of penalty gains and the two teams going a combined 4-of-5 on fourth down tries.

The Panthers trailed heavily for most of the contest (20-3 at halftime), leaving Bryce Young to drop back to pass 65 times to only 34 dropbacks for Kyler Murray. Both quarterbacks were mistake prone, leading to a combined 15.8 expected points lost to turnovers (mostly from Young).

The Cardinals might be one of the weakest 2-0 teams in recent history, with unconvincing wins against the New Orleans Saints and now Panthers.

IND vs DEN (-2.5)