Week 2 Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Ravens-Browns, Bengals-Jaguars, Cowboys-Giants, Lions-Bears, Dolphins-Patriots, Saints-49ers, Jets-Bills, Steelers-Seahawks & Titans-Rams

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher var

iance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

BAL (-12.5) vs CLE

The adjusted scores saw this game as significantly closer than the final score, mostly because the Baltimore Ravens benefited greatly from turnover value and huge late-down conversions. Looking at the fundamentals, the Ravens offensive success rate wasn’t impressive at all, held down by an elite-looking Cleveland Browns defense. On top of that, the Ravens juiced the score differential with a punt block and some penalty gains.

The game was only 10-3 at halftime in the Ravens favor, before a flood of Browns turnovers and a more effective Ravens offense caused an avalanche of points.

A fourth-quarter fumble-6 from Joe Flacco was the most impactful play of the game by EPA lost (-8.4), followed by another Flacco turnover - an interception returned for 61 yards.

The Ravens poor offensive success rate was primarily driven by difficulties running the ball, with running backs combining for 30 yards on 14 carries.

Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski claims that he isn’t going to consider a quarterback change in Week 3, but I’m not sure the Browns can stick with Flacco much longer. Lamar Jackson posted solid numbers in a lower-volume game, but he wasn’t at his best.

CIN (-3.5) vs JAX