Week 18 Sunday Late Window: Advanced Reviews
All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Bills-Jets, Bears-Lions, Broncos-Chargers, Rams-Cardinals, Raiders-Chiefs, Patriots-Dolphins & Eagles-Commanders
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
BUF (-12.5) vs NYJ
Big win in a meaningless game for the Buffalo Bills, who now slot into the sixth seed in the AFC, lining them up to travel to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the first round of the playoffs. The early betting market assessment makes the Bills a slight favorite by 1.5 points, which would make them a 2.5- or 3-point favorite on a neutral field.
The New York Jets had more at stake practically, with the loss dropping them to 3-14 and locking them in to the No. 2 pick in the 2026 NFL draft behind the Las Vegas Raiders.
Mitch Trubisky has only a accumulated 66 dropbacks over the last two seasons with the Bills, but he’s performed well enough to get a look from teams that need a bridge starter in 2026 or don’t have a better option. Trubisky’s is an unrestricted free agent this offseason and brings former top-2 pick pedigree.
