Week 18 Sunday, Late Window: Advanced Reviews

Cowboys take the East, Eagles take some lumps, and the Packers secure a playoff spot

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

GB-CHI

In a year of up-and-downs for the Packers, they end the regular season on a high note. It’s weird to even look back and think that there was major skepticism (disappointment?) among Packers fans with the team when they were 3-6 after Week 10, including the jobs being done by head coach Matt Lafleur and quarterback Jordan Love.