Week 18 Sunday, Early Window: Advanced Reviews

The Jags are out, the Steelers and Bills are in. Plus, the Bucs lock down the NFC South

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

CAR-TB

The Bucs did their job offensively to secure the NFC South: hung out and waited for the Panthers offense to self-destruct. I’m sure the Bucs defense played relatively well, but they were facing a Panthers offense that was shut out the week prior by a struggling Jags squad. Now it’s two games, or eight quarters, or over 120 minutes of action since the Panthers got any points, making for a miserable offseason in Charlotte.

The Bucs passing offense also stunk, but at least they avoided turnovers. The Bucs averaged 4.3 yards per attempt passing, but were decently good running the ball (113 yards, +0.8 EPA).

Shockingly, the Panthers numbers in this game were buoyed by high-leverage conversions on fourth down (2-for-2, +5.7 EPA). Outside of those conversions, the Panthers had the six most impactful plays of the game on offense, all of them negative.

This was great timing for Baker Mayfield to have one of his worst efficiency games for the season. Even with this performance, Mayfield sneaks into the top-10 in EPA per play among quarterbacks this season. The Bucs have clinched the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs, and will face whoever doesn’t win the NFC East, either the Eagles or Cowboys.

CIN-CLE