Week 18 Sunday: Advanced Game Reviews

Dolphins and Seahawks are in the playoffs, Eagles secure the bye, and the Texans somehow play themselves out of the No. 1 pick

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

BUF vs. NE

The Bills knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs, opening a window for the Dolphins to get in. The Patriots offense was decently successful, but lost the turnover, late-down and special teams categories.

The first and third most impactful plays of the game were two Nyheim Hines kick return touchdowns, with a 49-yard Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs strike inbetween. Those are outlier plays, and that’s why the adjusted score is 10 points more narrow than the actual.

A solid game for Allen to end the season, which should lock him into second in adjusted quarterback efficiency this season, though probably without any MVP votes.

Mac Jones played better than his numbers, with two of his three interceptions coming in the down multiple scores in the fourth quarter (-8.5 EPA). The Patriots will probably look to reassess everything offensively in the offseason. With the 15th pick in the draft, the Patriots won’t have a ton of ammo to go up and get another signal-caller, but it wouldn’t be surprising if they go after Bill O’Brien or another more established offensive coordinator.

MIA vs. NYJ

It was a struggle session for both offenses in Miami, but the Dolphins scrape by the Jets on the back of strong rushing efficiency. Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert averaged +0.15 EPA per designed run, including a 4th & 5 conversion by Wilson that ended up being the most impactful play of the game (only +3.1 EPA, showing how ineffective each team was).

After looking good in the preseason, Skylar Thompson was poor again in games that matter. I was a fan of his coming out of college, but he’s performing every bit like the seventh round pick he is.

The Jets are locked into the 13th spot in the NFL draft, and in quarterback limbo. I’ll look more deeply at the available quarterback options in the coming weeks, assuming the Jets look to free agency and not the draft.

CIN vs. BAL

The Bengals definitively clinch the No. 3 seed: no coins necessary. The 11-point victory looks more like an even matchup by the adjusted scores. The Bengals only had a 33% offensive success rate, but a +3 turnover margin and more success converting third downs made the difference.

It was a weird performance for Joe Burrow, losing a fumble, coming in below expected completion percentage and producing little air-yard EPA. Anthony Brown was as bad as expected.

PIT vs. CLE

The Steelers did their part today, and they got the needed help from the Bills beating the Patriots. Unfortunately, the Dolphins snuck by the Jets, ending the Steelers playoff hopes. For the 16th straight season, Mike Tomlin’s Steelers didn’t finish the season with a losing record.

This was another game that was closer than the final score. The Browns out gained the Steelers on a per-play basis (5.3 to 5.4), but couldn’t convert when needed on third and fourth downs.

This was the seventh straight week of positive EPA for Kenny Pickett, and his best play-play efficiency of the season. Pickett will still finish ranked in the 20s for season-long efficiency, but the trend is positive and will hopefully carry into next year.

IND vs. HOU

Just when we thought the #Tankathon was on, the Texans combined a series of improbable plays, culminating in a two-point conversion down one, to pull out the victory and lose control of the No. 1 pick.

While tanking probably should be a thing in the NFL, few coaches are going to do anything to lose a one of only 17 games on the schedule. And in the case of Lovie Smith, it is a sweet parting shot to management that let him go before the clock struck midnight on Sunday.

Davis Mills had strong superficial efficiency numbers, but 5 of his 8.1 EPA was on an almost comical 4th & 20 touchdown that went through the hands of a defender.