Week 18 Saturday Football: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Ravens-Browns and Steelers-Bengals

* Apologies for the late publication. I was travelling this morning.

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

BAL (-19.5) vs CLE

The Baltimore Ravens handled business at home and locked in a home game as the AFC North champs with a decisive win over the hapless Cleveland Browns. The Browns added to their quarterback jersey of shame by starting Bailey Zappe.

The Ravens are locked into the No. 3 seed in the AFC. The Browns are currently slotted into the No. 1 pick in the draft, though they’ll likely fall as results come in on Sunday. The New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans will jump up over the Browns on the 2025 NFL draft board with losses.

The Browns offense was expectedly horrendous. What was a little less anticipated was a relatively tame effort from the Ravens offensively. They hit the 72nd percentile in EPA efficiency, with only a 41% success rate.

The Browns gave away the first touchdown of the game on a pick-6, adding to the Ravens late-season defensive surge.

Derrick Henry complied 138 yards and two scores on 20 carries, finishing off a terrific campaign that got a little lost in the mix with subdued performances in the second half of the season. Henry finished the year with 1,921 yards and 16 touchdowns, totaling +60.2 expected points added for designed runs, only slightly behind Saquon Barkley (+63.7).

Lamar Jackson added to his MVP resume by box score, with two more passing touchdowns and 281 total yards. However, his EPA per play production wasn’t as good as his prior 2024 average, meaning it won’t really boost his case by the advanced metrics that focus on rate stats.

PIT vs CIN (-2.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals did what they needed to have a chance to make the playoffs, and now wait for results on Sunday. The Bengals still need the Denver Broncos to lose to the Mahomes-less Kansas City Chiefs and the Miami Dolphins to falter against the New York Jets, the latter having nothing to play for this week.

It wasn’t the most impressive performance from the Bengals, considering that they needed a win to survive and the Pittsburgh Steelers already knew they couldn’t win the AFC North and were locked into a Wild Card slot.

The Bengals only hit the 43rd percentile in EPA efficiency, though their 48% offense success rate was relatively strong. In game full of drops and mistakes, the Bengals much maligned defense stood out, only surrendering 193 yards of offense to the Steelers (3.3 yards per play) and holding then to 4-of-12 in third down conversions (-3.9 EPA) and 0-of-2 on fourth downs (-3.3).

With some light MVP buzz surrounding Joe Burrow coming into the game, he had one of his worst outings, posting negative EPA, needing 46 pass attempts to get to 277 yards, turning the ball over once (also a fumble recovered by his running back) and taking four sacks. The MVP talk for Burrow was more media creating a take-cycle than anything approaching realistic, but this performance should put to bed the ability to anyone to make that case from an advanced stats perspective.