Week 18 Saturday: Advanced Game Reviews & League News

Chiefs lock up No. 1, #OurJags AFC South Champs, Sean Payton and the Broncos flirting, Sean McVay doing the limbo, and Michael Thomas likely done in New Orleans

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Chiefs posted a dominant success rate, won the turnover battle and held down the Raiders offense. There wasn’t a lot to take away from this game, but winning in a convincing fashion when you’re supposed to is always a sign of a great team. I had the Chiefs as the best team in the NFL going into this week, and it’s extremely likely that will still be the case going out of it.

The story coming out of this game might be the “emergence” of Kadarius Toney, who scored dynamic touchdowns on back-to-back plays, the first called back by a questionable holding penalty. With Mecole Hardman and Sky Moore out, optimism was in the air that Toney would be featured, but he was mostly used in the run game.

Toney had 46 total yards, on a combination of three carries and two targets, while only running five routes. Toney brings another dimension in close on screens and jet sweeps quarters, but the Chiefs already have the third best red-zone touchdown percentage in the NFL (68.7%), and Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon have also been great around the goal line this year. The question for Toney going forward is if he can expand his usage into that of a full-time receiver, not a gadget player who occasionally runs routes more than 10 yards downfield.

Toney’s game could still grow, but he never was a downfield producer in college, and might always be the promise of efficiency, without the needed usage. In some ways, the bigger beneficiary with receiver snaps open was Justin Watson, who caught the opening play reception for 66 yards, and had another 40-plus air yards on a second-half target.

Toney will have a role and add value for the Chiefs, but there’s isn’t a path to true game-changing value at wide receiver without more traditional wide receiver usage. Percy Harvin broke the mold for a little over a season, but no receiver has ever broken the bank in contract talks without winning down the field.