Week 18 Power Rankings
Week 18 Power Rankings
The best and worst teams according to the rankings mostly fall into the appropriate playoff buckets, but not always
We got some clarification from the NFL that the Bills-Bengals game will not be played this week, and the Week 18 schedule won’t be adjusted.
The statement does rule out finishing the suspended game at another time, but, for now, we’re all still thinking about Damar Hamlin, who is still in critical condition.
Unfortunately for the Bills, a permanently suspended game, or even a tie, is a good as a loss for securing the No. 1 seed. The Chiefs are now a half game ahead in the standings, and will lock up the Wild-Card bye if they can beat the Jarrett Stidham-led Raiders in Las Vegas.
In fact, the Bills will know before their matchup against the Patriots on Sunday whether the Chiefs took care of business on Saturday, potentially affecting motivation in a game with big playoff implications. If the Patriots win they’re in, and the Dolphins will be eliminated.
A permanent suspension would be a double-edged sword for the Bengals, locking them into the AFC North title and a home game for the Wild Card round, but eliminating the outside chance they had to secure the No. 1 seed.
For the first time since late November, the Chiefs are leading the Bills for the highest assumed Super Bowl probability at various sportsbooks. I have them as a stronger favorite, as they retain the No. 1 power ranking this week, with some distance between them at No. 2 (the Eagles).
The Exact Team Strength Numbers
*Downloadable power ratings/rankings available in the paid subscriber Google sheet.
I have the Chiefs a few points better than any other team in the NFL, with the leagues best offense and 19th ranked defense. My numbers have a more narrow spread between defenses than offenses, meaning the lower ranking doesn’t affect them that much. Plus, some of the best defenses in the NFL (49ers, Cowboys and Bills) have struggled down the stretch, and my projections decay prior, strong results from earlier in the season.
As usual, the teams in the middle of the NFL are bunched up, with little separating the Chargers as the 12th ranked team and the Jets at 20th.
Generally the adjusted-score based power rankings have done a good job identifying the playoff teams, with eight-of-10 of the teams with a secured spot in the top three tiers, if you weight offense at 60% of total team strength and defense at 40%.
The Giants and Vikings are the two teams to clinch who are a notch below the rest, though the Chargers are closer to them than the rest of the cohort.
Looking at the teams still on the playoff bubble, most of the teams are in the third/fourth tier region, with the Titans well below, mostly due to a downgrade at quarterback with Joshua Dobbs (or Malik Willis), though the rest of the team is also weak around him.
The Packers recent run of wins moves them above a few teams already in the playoffs, and a strong final week of the season could give them the third highest power ranking in the NFC. The Packers have the same odds to win the Super Bowl in betting markets as the Vikings, still needing another win to get into the playoffs.
The eliminated teams are all out of the top-three tiers, other than the Browns. My numbers have been high on the Browns all season, a team with a difficult schedule and a handful of games that could have gone their way.
The Jets and Saints are the next-best teams to be eliminated, with the remaining squads near the bottom of the NFL.
