Week 18 NFL Power Rankings

Ravens solidified as the second best team, 49ers back to impressive results

You’ll notice that some of the rankings shifts and movements in power rating don’t correspond exactly with intuition based solely on results. The numbers still use some 2022 data (roughly 5% weighting), and prior weeks are having their effect sizes decayed, which can cause slight adjustments that look big. When lots of teams are bunched up in the middle and bottom of the NFL, even a marginal change in power rating can move a team 3-6 spots.

* The detailed information for power rankings are on the paid subscriber Google sheet (along with other site metrics). You can find previous Power Rankings write-ups on the landing page.

WHAT WE’VE LEARNED IN 2023

First let’s look at the team offensive and defensive efficiencies so far in 2023, using my adjusted-score methodology to measure performance, and factoring in strength of schedule.

It’s taken longer than consensus, but my rankings and adjusted performance for the Ravens has jumped all the non-49ers competitors. Where my adjusted-scores and SOS based measures differ from straight EPA per play for the Ravens is on defense. By unadjusted opponent EPA per play, the Ravens defense is only 0.03 EPA per play off from the pace set by the Browns, and a full 0.05 better than the Jets. My adjusted numbers differ primarily due to the Ravens defense outperforming their success rate (ranked 6th), and facing a lot of inefficient passers at high volume when leading in games. If the Ravens defense truly are who others think they are, my numbers are low, and their positioning by tiers would be much closer to the 49ers.

The Chiefs and Dolphins took a step back this week, along with the Eagles. The Bills have emerged as the most serious team-strength competition to the Ravens in the AFC, though their relative ranking with the Dolphins could change a lot based on their Week 18 matchup. The Eagles have fallen all to the bottom of the second tier, and my numbers doubt the Cowboys due to their easier schedule.

THE 2023 POWER RANKINGS AND RATINGS

Below visualizes the NFL ranked by what I’m calling “Power Rating”, or the estimates of each team’s point differential playing a league-average opponent on a neutral field.