Week 17 TNF Browns-Jets: Advanced Review

The Browns are in the playoffs, and not totally dead in the division

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

CLE-NYJ

The Browns clinch a playoff spot with the easy win. The Ravens win in San Francisco took away a good chance to win the AFC North, with the Browns now needing the Ravens to lose-out to the Dolphins and Steelers, and a win in Week 18 against the Bengals to win the AFC North, and even have a good chance of getting the No. 1 seed, depending on the Dolphins-Bills results to end the season. No matter what happens, securing the 5th seed will be helpful, meaning they’ll face the worst division winner in record, which looks now like the AFC South champ, either the Jags, Colts or Texans.

In terms of this game, neither team had great efficiency, mostly due to horrifically costly turnovers. The Browns were fundamentally a lot better on offense, but it continues to be a bit worrisome they aren’t producing positive rushing EPA consistently.

The context in this game is that the Browns did post a good success rate running (46.4%) and would have had slightly positive EPA without the -5.2 EPA fumble from Pierre Strong. Outside of that fumble, the Browns accumulated +0.1 EPA.

A pair of pick-6’s, one for each each, were the two most impactful plays of the game. Joe Flacco’s ill-advised attempt to pass through an on-rushing defender was a combination of poor decision and bad luck, but only lowered the Browns win probability by 5.2% as they had a 20-point lead.

While the Jets focus will obviously be on Aaron Rodgers’ return looking forward, they should have some positivity about how good Breece Hall has looked coming back from an ACL tear. He brings an explosively element to the offense that few teams enjoy with defenses concentrating on stopping big pass plays.

Somehow David Njoku has become Rob Gronkowski (not really) with Flacco under center. Njoku had 90+ receiving yards in one of his first 93 games before surpassing it three of his last four games.

I definitely focus too much on offense here, but I should at least note that Myles Garrett deserves some MVP hype being the most important piece on the defense in the NFL. Garrett accumulated another sack and four quarterback hits last night.

Flacco’s overall efficiency ends up being great, but not elite, entirely due to the -9 EPA pick-6. Unlike last week, he benefited disproportionately from YAC this week. I think the Browns can win a playoff game with Flacco, but getting past the Divisional Round will be an uphill battle. At least Flacco’s high variance passing production gives them a chance to win against anyone. The Browns will take the greater chance of a blowout loss that comes along with him.