Week 17 Sunday Early Window: Advanced Reviews
All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Panthers-Seahawks, Bengals-Cardinals, Browns-Steelers, Colts-Jaguars, Dolphins-Buccaneers, Jets-Patriots & Titans-Saints
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
CAR vs SEA (-7)
Stronger performance by the Seattle Seahawks defense leads to the win, although the Carolina Panthers offense had nearly the same offensive success rate as their opponent. The massive difference in results reflects late-down success rates, with the Seahawks going 9-for-16 on third downs, while the Panther converted only 1-of-11 third downs and just 2-of-5 fourth down tries.
Despite the loss, the Panthers are still alive in the playoff hunt, with their most straightforward path being a Week 18 win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Seahawks are now the favorites to win the No. 1 seed in the NFC (roughly 55% chance).
The four biggest impact plays of the game by EPA and WPA were turnovers, netting out almost perfectly, with two committed by each team. The Seahawks running game was the one positive aspect of offensive play, with Zach Charbonnet running for 110 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries (+10.7 EPA).
Bryce Young was absolutely awful by the numbers, losing 18 expected points over 33 play involvements, and the box score looks just as bad with 54 passing yards on 24 attempts (2.3 YPA) and an interception thrown.
I’m not sure that Seahawks fans should be overly worried, but Sam Darnold isn’t having the best stretch of his season to finish things out, posting negative EPA in four of his last seven games, driving his seasonal EPA efficiency down to eighth among quarterbacks.
