Week 17 SNF Vikings-Packers: Advanced Review

Jordan Love leads the Packers one step closer to the playoffs, with the Vikings nearly dead

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

MIN-GB

The adjusted agree that this was a one-sided affair, though a bit more narrow than the 23-point difference. That said, a 15-point difference in adjusted scores is huge, since the adjustments generally down-weight the high leverage plays that drive bigger blowouts.

The Packers offense had nearly a +18% success rate versus the Vikings, and the EPA efficiencies were more extreme, with the Packers in the 95th percentile and the Vikings below the 5th.

Weirdly the most impactful play by EPA was a punt fumble recovery by the Vikings, which netted 6.7 expected points, but only moved their win probability up by 0.1%, even though the whole fourth quarter remained. The Packers had an estimated win probability of 92% at halftime up 23-3, which rose to nearly 100% before the end of the third quarter up 30-3.

Jordan Love continues to stack impressive performances, especially when considering the lack of name-brand talent he’s throwing to at receiver. He benefited from a lot of YAC EPA in this game, but that can be as much about high-level offense execution as receiver’s doing something extraordinary. Love have zero negatives (turnovers or sacks), which boosted his efficiency to MVP-plus levels. Love is now up to 6th in EPA per play among quarterbacks with at least 400 dropbacks, higher than Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford.

Nick Mullens replaced the struggling Jaren Hall in the second half, and he was better in not being as awful. More than anything, the last 30 minutes of the game didn’t go as poorly for the Vikings because the Packers took their foot off of the gas.

As of right now, the Vikings only have a sliver of a chance to make the playoffs, whereas the Packers are a 70/30 shot. The Packers can get in with a win at home against the Bears next week, and still with a loss if a few other results go their way. The Vikings need to win can have four other Week 18 games go their way.