Week 17 NFL Power Rankings

Dolphins shift above the foundering Chiefs, the Ravens moving up, but less than you'd think

You’ll notice that some of the rankings shifts and movements in power rating don’t correspond exactly with intuition based solely on results. The numbers still use some 2022 data (roughly 5% weighting), and prior weeks are having their effect sizes decayed, which can cause slight adjustments that look big. When lots of teams are bunched up in the middle and bottom of the NFL, even a marginal change in power rating can move a team 3-6 spots.

* The detailed information for power rankings are on the paid subscriber Google sheet (along with other site metrics). You can find previous Power Rankings write-ups on the landing page.

WHAT WE’VE LEARNED IN 2023

First let’s look at the team offensive and defensive efficiencies so far in 2023, using my adjusted-score methodology to measure performance, and factoring in strength of schedule.

There wasn’t a “shake-up” in Week 16 as much as a rearrangement, mostly showing us that their might be more of an extended top tier of NFL teams than the 49ers so clearly above the pack. Their 14-point loss to the Ravens was less convincing than the final score according to my adjusted numbers, but it’s still a loss at home for the team with, by far, the best power rating going into the week. I’m still comfortable with the 49ers being the best team in the NFL, under the assumption Brock Purdy’s baseline interception rate in similar games going forward will be lower than 12.5% of attempts (career 2.6% rate).

Many in media will have the Ravens as the top team in their power ranking (maybe everyone will) using the seeming logic deduction: best record and just defeated the former best team. We understand that good forecasts of go-forward team strength are much more complicated than that, knowing that the much larger sample of play in previous weeks is more predictive than what happens in a single game, which is highly impacted by a handful of plays that could have gone either way. The Ravens are gaining in my numbers, but still don’t stand out from the Chiefs, Bills and Dolphins in the AFC.

I gotta highlight the Lions, again. No one really believes they’re on the same level as the Cowboys or Eagles in the NFC, but they’re currently the No. 2 seed, with the same record as the 49ers. The No. 1 seed will be tough to achieve, as the 49ers have the division-record tiebreaker locked up, but it’s possible they can get there, or have the advantage of resting players the next two weeks to be fresh for the playoffs.

THE 2023 POWER RANKINGS AND RATINGS

Below visualizes the NFL ranked by what I’m calling “Power Rating”, or the estimates of each team’s point differential playing a league-average opponent on a neutral field.