Week 17 Monday Night Falcons-Rams: Advanced Review
The Falcons ride Bijan Robinson to victory, with Stafford's mistakes making the difference, for the game and MVP race
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
ATL vs LA (-7)
According to the adjusted scores, the Los Angeles Rams were slightly better than the Atlanta Falcons, but they ran out of steam in their actual attempt to come back from a 21-point halftime victory. Neither offense was great by success rate, but the Falcons boosted their EPA efficiency to the 72nd percentile by avoiding negatives in the passing game (zero picks, zero sacks) and with an explosive 93-yard touchdown run by Bijan Robinson (+6.7 EPA).
With the loss, the Rams are locked into a Wild Card spot, making their Week 18 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals meaningless, beyond determining which opponent they’ll have to travel to face in the first round.
Both teams suffered an enormous swing loss on offense: a Falcons blocked field goal returned for a touchdown (-9.5 EPA) and a Rams pick-6 thrown (-7.1 EPA). The other drag on the Rams EPA efficiency was their lack of success on fourth downs, going 1-for-3 (net -3.4 EPA), including failures on 4th & 1 and 4th & 2.
I didn’t understand how Matthew Stafford was still the substantial favorite for MVP leading into this game, as the Rams road to the division title has been difficult for weeks, and the other leading competitor Drake Maye and the Patriots marching forward. After last night, Maye is now the overwhelming favorite to bring home the award (-300, implied 70-75% chance).
Stafford was almost able to offset his big mistakes with gains passing the ball, but 18.4 expected points lost to interceptions and sacks was too steep of a hill to climb.
