Week 17 Christmas Day: Advanced Reviews
All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Commanders-Cowboys, Vikings-Lions & Chiefs-Broncos
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
WAS vs DAL (-8.5)
No playoff implications in this contest, yet still a solid win for the Dallas Cowboys over the Washington Commanders. The Commanders were starting their third quarterback this season, and the score was a bit closer than the game played out. The Cowboys were up 21-3 in the second quarter, but a couple Commanders scores, including a 1-play 72-yard touchdown drive cut the lead to seven points in the second half.
The Cowboys were significantly better in overall offensive success rate, but truly separated from the competition on late downs. The Cowboys converted 9-of-20 third downs (+9.8 EPA) and an incredible 6-of-6 on fourth downs (+11.0 EPA). The Commanders, on the other hand, failed on all but one of their third down attempts (-6.5 EPA).
The Commanders were able to put up points, despite awful third down play, by being explosive enough on early downs to rack up first-downs and eventual scores. Both teams littered the top-play EPA board with positives, the only negative in the top-10 plays being a missed 58-yard field goal by Brandon Aubrey.
The Cowboys may have had disappointing season, but it’s tough to make the same argument for Dak Prescott, who led the NFL in adjusted EPA among quarterbacks going into Week 17, and should have a good game by that metric in this game.
MIN vs DET (-7)
I mentioned a week ago that the Minnesota Vikings are relishing the role of spoiler, this week ending any chance the Detroit Lions make the postseason. It was an ugly game offensively, with the Vikings unable to move the ball, but their defense making the difference forcing six turnovers (+28.6 EPA) and sacking Jared Goff five times.
The Vikings didn’t need much on offense to get the win, and got a highly valuable 65-yard touchdown run from Jordan Addison as the biggest explosive play of the game (+5.9 EPA).
Goff’s five turnovers sunk any chance for the Lions to win, but this bad game didn’t knock him out of the top-10 in efficiency on the season.
KC vs DEN (-13.5)
The Denver Broncos had been one of the luckier teams in results versus adjusted scores, but not in this win over the Kansas City Chiefs. The vast difference in offensive success rates pointed to a stronger win for the Broncos than the actual seven-point differential, as none of the Chiefs three scoring drives required more than 35 yards gained, with strong special teams returns and a turnover giving them excellent field positions. The Broncos outgained the Chiefs 303 yards to just 139, with 57 yards in penalties on the Broncos helping somewhat to close the gap.
The win raised the Broncos AFC No. 1 seed probability to a little under 60%, with the New England Patriots (30%), Jacksonville Jaguars (8%) and Los Angeles Chargers (3%) still in the mix. It’s basically all on the Broncos Week 18 contest against the Chargers to get the division and No. 1 seed, with a Chargers win opening up possibilities for others.
It’s not a great sign for watchability when the biggest positive EPA play of the game was a neutral zone infraction penalty, but that isn’t expected with the two offenses averaged a combined 3.9 yards per play.
Despite averaging only 4.8 yards per pass attempt and throwing a pick, Bo Nix finished with decent EPA efficiency, with key rushing value and good third-down conversion success.
