Week 17 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Joe Flacco's numbers match the vibes, Brock Purdy falls (only slightly) and Jordan Love cracks the top-10

You can find all the previous weeks’ versions of the Bayesian Quarterback Rankings here.

COMPARING GRADES AND EFFICIENCY

PFF grades aren’t part of the analysis, but I find it helpful to make not of how they align with EPA per play, as many contextual elements of quarterback play (drops, interception-worthy throws, easier throws that become big gains, etc) are part of the grading methodology, but aren’t accounted for in EPA. At the same time, I think EPA does a vastly superior job of weighing what is and isn’t important in points-based results.

It’s almost imperceptible, but Brock Purdy’s overall efficiency did drop a lot of only adding one of 15 games to his 2023 sample. It was the worst game of Purdy’s career by EPA per play (see Week 16 plot below), even worse than when he faced the Browns earlier this season in poor weather conditions on the road. Outside of those two games, Purdy worst efforts is only slightly negative EPA, which makes the totality of his overall efficiency remarkably good.

It’s not a major shake-up, but the rank ordering in PFF grade now has Josh Allen at the top, followed by Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa. MVP favorite Lamar Jackson is fifth in grading after one of his better games against the 49ers, but still very unlikely to finish graded in the top-2 or have per-play EPA efficiency inside the top-4. I think a win next week against the Dolphins, which will wrap up the No. 1 seed and take Tagovailoa totally out of MVP contention (third in current odds, behind Jackson and Christian McCaffrey). I’ll continue fighting the losing battle that Jackson is more the vibes and team results MVP than actual most valuable player, but the voters will clearly disagree.

The Week 16 results have Joe Flacco’s numbers finally matching the good feelings in Cleveland, with him and Matthew Stafford having their best games of the season. Going back to the year-long numbers, Stafford has better efficiency and a higher PFF grade than the MVP favorite Jackson. I don’t put the Rams on the same level as the Bills, but they’re the best NFC candidate for takes a low seeding to the Super Bowl, unless you count the Cowboys who probably won’t win the division, but also won’t sneak up on anyone.

Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield continue to stack strong efficiency games, though their season-long grades hint at some luck or surrounding support in their EPA numbers, or maybe the grading is missing something they bring to the game that’s coming through with value metrics.

WEEK 17 PROJECTED EFFICIENCY

These results are the ranking for the go-forward projections of quarterback efficiency this season. I also included the EPA per play rankings for each quarterback over the last five seasons (minimum 250 dropbacks in previous years, 120 in 2023) so you can see the evidence going into the projections.

Older data is decayed over time, so the 2023 EPA per play data matters more than those from pre-2020. That said, older data can’t be fully discounted, or else you miss bounce-back performers of great quarterback returning to form, like Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and 2021.

The big shake-up of the week is the benching of Russell Wilson for journeyman backup Jarrett Stidham, and Trevor Siemian will start against the Browns. I’m keeping Trevor Lawrence in the rankings, but his status is very uncertain at this point.