Week 17 Advanced Review

Playoff picture now in coming into focus. Giants and Bucs are in. Saints, Panthers, Commanders and Jets are out. Packers, Lions, Seahawks, Patriots, Dolphins, Jags and Steelers TBD

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

TB vs CAR

The Bucs clinch the NFC South, and the Panthers are out of the playoff hunt. Both teams were fairly successful offensively, but the Bucs turnover advantage was the key, along with Mike Evans toasting the entire Panthers secondary.

Evans scored three touchdowns after failing to reach the end zone in his previous 11 games. Evans scores weren’t stat padding dink and dunks, they came from 63, 57 and 30 yards out, the first, third and eighth most impactful plays of the game (total +14.4 EPA).

This was Tom Brady’s second most efficient game of the season (0.53 EPA per play Week 10 vs the Seahawks on 26 plays) and his best CPOE of the year.

Sam Darnold had the second best efficiency this season to Patrick Mahomes coming into this game, bolstered by committing zero turnovers in more than 100 dropbacks and designed runs. That all came crashing down agains the Bucs. Darnold’s two fumbles cost the Panthers 11 expected points, and they lost an additional four points on a Darnold interception.

Maybe the Panthers will bring back Darnold as a veteran option next season, and interim coach Steve Wilks is reportedly in consideration to continue as head coach.

DET vs CHI