Week 16 TNF Rams-Saints: Advanced Review

Rams moving close to the playoffs, while the Saints need to win out and get some help

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

NO-LA

The Rams win a hugely important game for playoff implications (more on that below) by eight points, and it wasn’t as close as the final score by my adjusted numbers. The Rams finished with a +10% offensive success rate differential, and held the advantages in turnover (+4.6 EPA) and late-down conversion (+13.1 EPA) values. In other words, they were the consistently better team, and also squeezed more value out of the highest leverage plays.

This game was really over at 27-7 in the third quarter, though the Saints put up some points at the end to make it interesting looking. The calculated win probabilities didn’t see much changing but the score.

A decent portion of the efficiencies for both teams reflected simple fourth-down success. The Rams were 1-for-1, converting on their biggest positive EPA play of the game from the Saints 2 yard-line (+3.7 points). The Saints were 0-for-3, losing 8.6 expected points with failures on 4th & 7 and twice on 4th and 5.

It was the Rams passing game driving success, with Matthew Stafford continuing his strong season that has his at 8th in quarterback EPA per play, only slightly lower than Tua Tagovailoa when accounting for poor INT-luck. This was a Puca Nacua game, with the rookie accumulating a massive 14.6 EPA on 11 targets (9-164-1) and +0.9 EPA on two designed runs. The Rams only gained +4.7 EPA on 21 targets to other receivers.

The Saints weren’t as bad through the air as they may have looked to observers, with the help of some garbage time production. They were in a game-script that didn’t allow much running, and they were horrible at it when they tried. Alvin Kamara, Jamal Williams and Taysom Hill combined for -5.4 EPA on 14 designed runs, with all of Kamara’s nine runs unsuccessful (negative EPA).

This was Stafford’s second-best game of the season by EPA per play and total EPA, basically a mistakes-free effort (one sack for only three yards) with a bunch of quality, accurate throws (+7.6% CPOE).

As I mentioned earlier, Derek Carr and the Saints passing game wasn’t that bad, though I’m sure he’ll get a lot of the blame. Carr’s propensity to take drive-killing sacks (one on fourth down, the other on 3rd & 7) and throw short of the sticks (3-yard gain on 4th & 7) add to fans and coaching frustrations.

The stakes going into this game were the highest of the week. Both teams’ postseason probabilities would swing by more than 35% depending on the results of the game. With the Rams victory, they have a 70% chance to make the playoffs, and the Saints are now at 20%, by my numbers.

If the Rams can beat the Giants next week, they’ll just need the Seahawks and Packers to not win-out and they should make it to the postseason. The most likely route to the playoffs for the Saints is for them to win-out against the Bucs in Tampa and the Falcons at home, and have the Bucs lose to either the Jags or Panthers. The biggest winner who wasn’t playing was the Bucs, who are now in the driver’s seat for the NFC South (83% probability).