Week 16 TNF Chargers-Broncos: Advanced Review

The Chargers get a solid win at home, putting them on a path to the playoffs

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

LAC (-3) vs DEN

The Los Angeles Chargers get a solid win at home against the division-rival Denver Broncos, with lots of playoff implications. The Chargers and Broncos are now 9-6, with each having roughly a 90% chance to make the playoffs. The Chargers chances are slightly higher than that number and the Broncos somewhat lower.

The Chargers trailed 21-13 at halftime, but put together a flurry of scoring in the second half, and the fundamental numbers favored their numbers, reflected in a substantially better success rate (52% to 42%).

The Chargers 92nd percentile EPA efficiency through the air offset poor rushing numbers (-0.20 EPA per designed run). The composition of the most impactful plays shows that the Chargers offense was responsible for the vast majority of big plays in both directions.

Sean Payton’s fourth-down decision-making should come under some scrutiny, passing on all three instances when the modeled win probabilities put going-for-it as the strong choice. Twice when the Broncos were trailing 27-24 in the fourth quarter and had the ball at midfield they chose to punt. Those three chances totalled 10.3% in win probability lost, according to the model.

Great game for Justin Herbert and good game for Bo Nix by the numbers. If you’re a Nix skeptic, his extreme reliance on YAC EPA for production will bolster the idea his numbers this season aren’t as impressive once you bring context into play.