Week 16 Sunday Late Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Cardinals-Falcons, Broncos-Jaguars, Lions-Steelers & Texans-Raiders

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ARI vs ATL (-2.5)

The Arizona Cardinals looked somewhat competitive mid-season after the transition to backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett, but they’ve now lost seven straight, this week falling at home to the Atlanta Falcons. All the losses have put the Cardinals in position to get a draft pick in 2026, though likely not the No. 1 pick, as they have the toughest SOS (tiebreaker) among the worst teams.

Bijan Robinson was the dual-threat key to the Falcons offense, gaining a total of 171 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries and 11 targets. In terms of value, Robinson’s +3.7 EPA when targeted simply offset the value lost on his carries.