Week 16 Sunday Early Window: Advanced Reviews
All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Panthers-Bucs, Browns-Bills, Cowboys-Chargers, Dolphins-Bengals, Saints-Jets, Giants-Vikings & Titans-Chiefs
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
CAR vs TB (-3)
A slightly lucky win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the Carolina Panthers, who now are neck-and-neck with the Bucs for likely NFC South winner. It doesn’t matter much what they do next week against the Seattle Seahawks, but they clinch the division with a win the final week of the season, again facing the Bucs.
Neither team was very good offensively, with both teams averaging around five yards per play, but they juiced EPA efficiencies with good third-down success.
