Week 16 Sunday Advanced Review

Packers surging, Broncos hit new lows, an ugly Bucs-Cardinals matchup lives up to its billing

Advanced review write-ups here for TNF and Saturday games

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2022 Adjusted Scores and other site metric are available to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Packers surging towards the playoffs

I’ll start with the positives in this one: the Packers are now legitimately in the playoff hunt. Rewinding back to the aftermath of their Week 12 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, there were serious takes that Aaron Rodgers should be benched (a take I wholeheartedly rejected) with their playoffs chances all but decided to the negative.

Fast forward four weeks and the Packers have won three in a row, and more importantly, have gotten a lot of help from other teams on the playoff bubble. If the Packers can win out against division rivals the final two weeks (Vikings and Lions) and either the Commanders lose one of their finals games (Browns and Cowboys), or the Giants lose both (Colts and Eagles), the Packers will be in the playoffs.

My Week 16 power rankings already had the Packers as a top-11 team, and they should jump into the top-10 this week. They’re very much live to make some noise in a shakier NFC playoff picture.