Week 16 SNF Broncos-Patriots: Advanced Review

The Broncos are nearly eliminated from the playoffs, and the Patriots lose their grip on a top quarterback pick

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

DEN-NE

This one paints as a very unlucky loss for the Broncos, which all but eliminates them from the playoffs (5% probability left). While the Patriots were eliminated already, this win does have major ramifications on their chances to get a top-2 pick and shot at either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. They’re now slotted for the No. 4 pick, but would have been behind only the Panthers at No. 2 if they had lost. In fact, losing out would have guaranteed the No. 2 pick.

Back to the game, the Broncos poor luck mostly revolved around fumbles and an inability to convert on 4th & Goal from the 2. Outside of those semi-random types of turnovers, the Broncos were the superior offense, with a success rate nearly 13% higher. Both teams saw their offensive efficiency hampered by an inability to convert third downs, with the Patriots going 3-for-12 (-3.9 EPA) and the Broncos 4-for-14 (-5.8).

The fumble-6 from Marvin Mims on a third quarter kick return was the most impactful play of the game, costing the Broncos 8.6 expected points. Two other fumbles from Bailey Zappe and Javonte Williams basically wiped each other out, though the Broncos failed to score any points after prime field position on their recovery.

This was Zappe’s best efficiency game of the season, but not saying much as his only game with positive value by EPA. Russ Wilson had roughly the same efficiency. Both quarterbacks had fairly big negatives, but it was mostly the fumble for Zappe, and entirely sacks for Wilson (-9 EPA, 5 sacks for 49 yards). Russ has always shown a propensity to take sacks, though it was somewhat muted in Sean Payton’s quick-pass offense.