Week 16 Saturday Commanders-Eagles & Bears-Packers: Advanced Reviews
The Eagles handle business, while the Bears jump way out ahead in the NFC North
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
WAS vs PHI (-7)
The Philadelphia Eagles survived especially poor special teams play to end up beating the Washington Commanders with relative ease. Those flukier special teams losses included two missed field goals (-5.4 EPA) and fumbling away the opening kickoff (-5.3 EPA), which explains why the adjusted scores reflect an even bigger victory.
With two games remaining the Eagles are locked into the NFC East title, while having no chance to ascend to the No. 1 seed. It will be interesting to see how a generally sharp NFL team allocates playing time with two full games of meaningless football to play.
