Week 16 Saturday Advanced Reviews

George Pickens silences the doubters, and Josh Allen put the Bills on his back

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

PIT-CIN

Just when everything was looking down for the Steelers and their offense, they bring in Mason Rudolph to get their best result of the year. The Steelers offensive efficiency of +0.21 EPA per play their highest in 2023, though it was produced through a numbers of bigger plays, those that shouldn’t be sustainable in the long-run.

The disconnect between their good success rate and outstanding efficiency explains why the adjusted scores see this as a closer game than the final score. The Bengals had a -12.9 EPA disadvantage on turnovers and a massive 15.7 fewer expected points on late-down conversions. Both teams had similar third down conversion rates (Bengals 46%, Steelers 50%), but the Steelers converted from longer distances (including 15 and 10 yards to go) and turned those conversions into big plays. The Bengals were 0-for-2 on fourth downs, losing 6.9 expected points.

The Steelers had a complete effort offensively, hitting above the 75th percentile in passing and rushing efficiency, though 3.0 of the Steelers total 3.1 expected points gained on designed runs came on two touchdowns: Calvin Austin from seven yards out and Najee Harris three away.

I’m not sure I’ve seen another game with three 65-plus yard touchdowns in one game, two of them going to the Steelers (total +13.3 EPA) and one to the Bengals (+6.6 EPA). Outside of those two big touchdowns, the Steelers lost 3.4 expected points when dropping back to pass.

Jake Browning had been really solid this season in relief of Joe Burrow, with a top-10 efficiency number coming into this game. He struggled in this one, mostly with turnovers. Browning’s first interception was perplexing, even with his post-game explanation that it was an attempted throwaway (-4.5 EPA), he tried the squeeze the ball into non-existent windows on the second (-5.3) and again on the third (-3.1). An 80-yard YAC-fueled touchdown by Tee Higgins helped boost Browning’s numbers, though it came in virtual garbage time, down 24-0 in the third quarter. Browning lost another five expected points on sacks, getting a little lucky to have one strip sack recovered by a teammate.

Rudolph didn’t have to throw at volume with a few big plays making the difference, and mistakes from his opponent giving the Steelers a nearly insurmountable lead at halftime. That said, he executed well and gave his receivers chances to make plays. Rudolph also avoided negative, committed zero turnovers and only taking one sack. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Rudolph start again next week, with Kenny Pickett’s injury recovery timeline slowing to in contrast to Rudolph’s play.

Even with the win, the 8-7 Steelers only have an outside chance to make the playoffs (10%), needing to win-out a difficult schedule of Seahawks and Ravens, plus get help elsewhere. The “help” would basically be a combination of losses by the Jags, Colts, Broncos, Bengals, Bills and Dolphins. I know there has been chatter about this possibly being the end for Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh, but I don’t get how that could be the case after having a team with this level of quarterback play in contention for the playoffs. The Steelers fan base might be a bit spoiled with so much success over the years, and probably need to place more blame on how the front office built the offense than on Tomlin’s coaching.

The Bengals similarly have a 10% chance for the playoffs, and also have a tough schedule to finish the year: at Chiefs and Week 18 at home against the Browns. The Bengals will be hoping for other losses from the same cohort as for the Steelers.

LAC-BUF

The Bills pull over the way-too-close victory to keep their playoff hopes rising, also helping out the #brand of this newsletter, which has been pumping their fundamental team strength all season. Losing to Easton Stick and the Chargers, who were coming off of humiliating 63-21, coach-killing loss to the Raiders would have caused a five-alarm fire in Buffalo media this week.

I’m a little surprised the adjusted scores didn’t have this as a wider margin of victory for the Bills, who suffered from a massively negative rushing fumble and coughing it up on a punt return. Those two plays cost them a combined 11.9 expected points and 41% win probability.

I’m not sure Josh Allen will get a lot of praise for barely beating the Chargers, but he put the team on his back in this game. The Bills previously dominant run game was awful, with a 24% success rate on non-Allen designed runs, losing 8.5 expected points on 25 attempts. Allen did have one interception, but that only had a modest negative impact (-2.4 EPA), going 45 yards downfield and netting them the same in field position.

Stick was relatively good in this game versus expectations just by not being terrible. It isn’t a great sign for the Bills defense that they could do a better job holding down the Chargers passing game, but they were put in bad field positions by Bills offensive turnovers.

Back to Allen’s potentially underrated game. On top of the 11.2 expected points he derived on a number of unbelievably difficult passes, he also scored two designed run touchdowns (+2.3 EPA) and did an excellent job avoiding sacks (one for seven yards).

This was nearly a 50% postseason probability leverage game for the Bills, with most of the risk to the downside if they lost a game they were 12-point favorites to win. I now have the Bills at an 82% chance to make the postseason. They’re 100% in if they win out against the Patriots and at the Dolphins, but can still have a good chance of getting in at 10-7 if they lose that final game of the season in Miami (roughly 65% chance), though it will require a few games to go against the Colts, Texans, Jags and other AFC contenders. If the Bills get into the playoffs, they’ll be as dangerous as anyone, though without the advantage of the No. 1 seed and bye week. They also will more likely than not (though it’s fairly split) have to go on the road in the Wild Card round.

The Chargers now stand at No. 5 in the tankathon, which should enable them to a strong piece of talent to put around Justin Herbert, or trade back to shore up a number of positions and cut more expensive veterans. Either way, I think the head coach and general manager jobs their are attractive, with a ton of previous success for coaches coming into jobs with elite quarterbacks.