Week 16 Saturday Advanced Review

Vikings win again, 49ers look like the best team in the NFL, Bills and Bengals take care of business

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2022 Adjusted Scores are available to subscribers via Google Sheet. Check them out. I welcome your feedback.

Ravens grind out a victory and lock up a playoff spot

The conditions in Baltimore weren’t ideal, but 20 degrees with 10-20 mph winds was lovely football conditions compared to some of the other games on the slate. Even so, the Ravens and Falcons stuck hard to the running game, both dropping back to pass 15% or more under expectation.

The Ravens were decently successful offensively, quarterbacked by Pro-Bowl fourth alternate Tyler Huntley, but the Falcons were fairly inept on offensive for the second straight game with rookie Desmond Ridder at the controls.

Ridder’s efficiency numbers showed vast improvement from last week, but the Falcons running game was stuck in the mud, posting -0.15 EPA per designed run, only the fourth time this season the Falcons run efficiency has been below the 50th percentile.

The Falcons are officially eliminated from playoff contention. You can’t help but wonder if the they could have gone 2-0 the last two weeks - in very winnable games -with Marcus Mariota at quarterback, which would have them now at 7-8 and leading the division. Instead, they’re now looking up in the standings at the Bucs, Saints and even the Panthers.

All the good and bad of Josh Allen on display

The game was closer than the final score, as the Bills lead by only four points in the third quarter, but the adjusted scores still view it as a solid victory (+15 point differential). The Bills defense came to play, holding the Bears offense to a week-low 30% success rate.

Josh Allen’s per-play efficiency wasn’t eye-popping, but it was impressive considering the conditions and how he produced most of it through the air. Allen’s 11.4-yard aDOT and 11.4 air-yards EPA on completions were both in the top-five for the week.

Where he struggled has been a common theme this season: Turnovers. Allen had two costly interceptions, which brings his seasonal total of interception-worthy plays to 34 (most in the NFL, data from FTN), and his actual interceptions to 13 (tied for second). Allen also has the third most fumbles (13) and the second most lost (5), though he recovered his one fumble in this game.

Justin Fields had his worst efficiency game of the season, outside of Week 2 against the Packers at Lambeau Field. What this performance showed was the vulnerability to the Bears offense when Fields isn’t producing absurd plays on the ground, which had been happening with regularity. This was only the second game that Fields had negative EPA on rushes and scrambles (again, Week 2 vs the Packers the other time), and his breakout season was largely propelled by averaging over 10 EPA on the ground from Weeks 4-15.

Fields has improved his standing and chance of NFL success with his performance this season, but the Texans win this week puts the Bears within a half game of securing the No. 1 overall pick. Will Ryan Poles - a GM who didn’t draft, or show much confidence in Fields with his offseason offense-building - pass up the chance to take a quarterback of his choosing?

A lot of the #discourse on Zach Wilson’s draft ascension and worthiness of being a top pick is a reflection of not just how high he went in the draft, but the fact that he was taken before Fields. Data collected by Pro Football Network’s Arif Hasan on all the different big boards leading into the 2021 leaves no doubt as to whether Wilson was, in fact, a big talent.

Numbers from Hasan via Twitter DM:

2/71 boards had him [Wilson] outside of their top-32, which is the closest approximation i have for "not first round grade" tho[ugh] you know many people will not give 32 players "first-round grades"

More interesting may be: 24/71 had him in their top five overall players.

Only 16 had him outside of their top ten. Only 4 outside of top 25.

When you read that Wilson was “not a first round talent”, you can safely translate it to “I didn’t have him as a first round talent”, or better yet, “he shouldn’t have been taken before Fields, who I had as a first round talent”. The overall evaluations for Wilson were so overwhelmingly positive that it’s hubris to claim there was some truth on the tape that you noticed and the vast majority of people doing this for a living missed.