Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, MNF Advanced Review

Chiefs remain supreme, Cowboys fall below the Dolphins, and the Jaguars make the leap

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2022 Adjusted Scores are available to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Packers keep hope alive

Aaron Rodgers & Co. handled business at home, but the game felt a little tight down the stretch, despite the Packers moving the ball with regularity (53% success rate) and posting the highest point differential of the week (+12, +14 by my adjusted scores).

Matt LaFleur’s decision to go for it on fourth-and-3 in Rams territory - when the numbers leaned towards kicking - netted the Packers 2.1 EPA and eventually led to an A.J. Dillon touchdown.

This was a counterintuitive situation when “the analytics” said to kick because the certainty of making the field goal was so strong (91%). The opportunity cost mitigated the gains from a much less likely conversion and eventual touchdown. The numbers above are a bit off, as the distance the Packers needed by the eye was much closer to two than three yards. Some back-of-the-envelope adjustments, moving the chance of conversion rate to 55%, lowers the benefit of kicking to roughly 1%, but the recommendation would still say kick.

The Packers currently have around a 10% chance to make the playoffs, needing to win-out against the Dolphins, Vikings and Lions, then getting multiple losses from the Commanders or Giants, and cooperation from the Lions and Seahawks. The Packers aren’t the elite team many thought they’d be in the offseason, but they’re improving, and good enough to make it interesting in the Wild Card round.

What can I say about this Rams squad that hasn’t already been said about Afghanistan? They are bombed out and depleted. Missing multiple starter across all position units, their results aren’t predictive of anything we’ll see from the 2023 version, and they’re lucky to not be on a eight-game losing streak. Lions’ fans will be happy to know they’re back on track for a top-four pick in the 2023 with possession of the Rams’ first round selection.

Week 16 NFL Power Rankings

These numbers are built on the expected EPA per play numbers that drive my adjusted scores. I discount outlier plays, fumble luck and other high variance aspects of the game. I also adjust the numbers further for team strength of schedule - the technical process laid out here by Alok Pattani, former ESPN Analytics Specialist who helped create some of their metrics, including QBR.

Armed with efficiencies and strength of schedule adjustments, the final tweaks are decaying past results (most recent game is more representative of future performance than Week 1) and use a combination of art and science for injury adjustments, especially at the quarterback position. My injury adjustments are a combination of base rates for certain positions, past historical performance for the specific players and some ole’ fashioned opinions on players that we lack sufficient data to judge.

Week 16 Team Tiers

The Chiefs remain alone in the top tier going into Week 16, with a deceptively good performance against the Texans. They had to go to overtime to get the win, but the offensive metric were strong, and the adjusted scores saw it more as a blowout than a close game.

The Eagles, Bills, Bengals and 49ers took care of business, but not dominant fashion, creating a slightly wider gap between the second tier and the Chiefs. The biggest movement in the second tier was the Cowboys falling to the bottom after losing to the Jaguars, which especially hurt their defensive strength rating. The Jags had an offensive success rate well above 50%, and their adjusted score (35) nearly matched the actual total that including a game-ending pick-6 (40).

The Dolphins joined the second tier and jumped the Cowboys by displaying strength in a loss. The Florida residents went to reezing Buffalo and had an eight-point lead in the fourth quarter before succumbing to Josh Allen’s heroics.

There’s a lot of jostling of teams in the middle of the pack, but the differences in power ratings (estimated point differential against an average team on a neutral field) between the 10th and 23rd best teams in the NFL is less than two points, a gap half the size of that between the Chiefs and Eagles.

All the power rankings and power rating data are available to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.