Week 16 NFL Power Rankings

The 49ers still on top, the Bills solidify No. 2, and the Bucs are moving up to the top of the third tier

You’ll notice that some of the rankings shifts and movements in power rating don’t correspond exactly with intuition based solely on results. The numbers still use some 2022 data (roughly 5% weighting), and prior weeks are having their effect sizes decayed, which can cause slight adjustments that look big. When lots of teams are bunched up in the middle and bottom of the NFL, even a marginal change in power rating can move a team 3-6 spots.

* The detailed information for power rankings are on the paid subscriber Google sheet (along with other site metrics). You can find previous Power Rankings write-ups on the landing page.

WHAT WE’VE LEARNED IN 2023

First let’s look at the team offensive and defensive efficiencies so far in 2023, using my adjusted-score methodology to measure performance, and factoring in strength of schedule.

It’s a lot of rinse-and-repeat at this point in the NFL season. There’s a ton of relative rankings movement in the middle-tier of NFL teams, but it doesn’t mean a ton when you have perspective on how a handful of teams have separated and the rest bunched up in the middle. The results in Week 15 mostly confirmed and consolidated my numbers, in particular with the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions playing as well as my numbers had them, and a “hot” playoff contender like the Denver Broncos going the other way.

I’ll give the weekly reminder to discount the Minnesota Vikings’ positioning to the right on this plot, as it build in a tremendous amount of efficiency passing volume when Kirk Cousins was still playing. The power rating below account for the quarterback change, making the Vikings the 18th best team, not in the top-10 as their full-season results show. That said, the Vikings defense has been one of the better stories this year, with Brian Flores doing a great job with a talent deficit.

THE 2023 POWER RANKINGS AND RATINGS

Below visualizes the NFL ranked by what I’m calling “Power Rating”, or the estimates of each team’s point differential playing a league-average opponent on a neutral field.